WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥� The U.S. military has paused its after nearly two weeks of intensifying bombing, while have pushed forward to try to avert a return to all-out war.
But it remains to be seen whether the U.S. and Iran are at an inflection point in that will reach the five-month point Tuesday. President Donald Trump both has and said talks are pressing on, all while brushing off concerns that tied to the fighting could hurt Republicans in November’s midterm elections.
is the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned visit with Trump next week in Washington. Israel, which launched the war alongside the U.S. on Feb. 28, has been notably absent from the renewed American attacks over Iran’s , a vital shipping corridor through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows.
鈥淭he Iranians understand that perhaps it could get worse because Israel could come into the conflict,鈥� said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. On the other hand, Israel’s lack of involvement so far 鈥渕ay signal to the Iranians that we鈥檙e looking to limit the conflict.鈥�
Singh, who was senior Middle East director on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, said he was hesitant to read too much into the lull in fighting.
鈥淚f it turns into a multiday pause, that鈥檒l be something significant,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”
Mediators keep pressing their diplomatic efforts
A regional official involved in the mediation efforts said that concerted diplomacy was underway and that a pause in U.S. strikes and Iranian counterstrikes on neighboring countries hosting American forces was a 鈥減ositive signal that helps their efforts to de-escalate.鈥�
The official said that both the U.S. and Iran want to return to and that a compromise, which is being negotiated now, centers around having Iran run vessel transit through the with fewer restrictions on ships. The official was not authorized to discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Iran put a chokehold on the narrow Persian Gulf waterway when the war began by firing on tankers and freighters. In turn, during the conflict, which has been , and could leave some Republican lawmakers vulnerable in November.
Following the signing of an in June, a battle for control over the strait has erupted. Iran demanded that ships use a route near its coastline and said it can . Ships were increasingly navigating a southern route along the coast of Oman under a U.S. overwatch operation when Iran attacked some vessels.
The U.S. renewed attacks on Iran鈥檚 coastal defenses, aiming to blunt Tehran鈥檚 ability to strike ships in the strait. The Trump administration then expanded its targets, hitting in the south and striking deeper into the center of Iran.
Singh said the strikes appear to be an attempt to push Iran back to the negotiating table. Now, he said, “the question would be: What kind of messages, if any, is the Iranian regime sending through diplomatic channels? Have those messages changed? Do they seem more eager to return to talks?鈥�
Among the challenges the U.S. faces is the fractured leadership in Iran, with different factions vying for control, Singh said, something that Trump administration officials have also pointed to. The people in charge in Iran may worry that compromising with the U.S. will be seen as weakness and could loosen their grip on power.
Whatever the case, both the U.S. and Iran need the strait to reopen for their own economic reasons.
鈥淏ut they have very different conceptions of under what conditions, under whose control,鈥� Singh said. 鈥淪o we have to get to some kind of stable equilibrium on those questions before you鈥檙e going to see a longer period of quiet. I think this effort to negotiate with words and also to negotiate with force is going to continue until we reach that equilibrium.鈥�
Trump issues threats but also talks up diplomacy
Despite the lull in fighting, tensions are high in the region.
驰别尘别苍鈥檚 said Saturday that they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia in response to Saudi airstrikes on the strategic Red Sea city of Hodeida. say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become since the disruption of the .
The U.S. military also is enforcing its of Iranian ports, saying it in the Gulf of Oman on Friday after the vessel tried to violate the blockade and ignored warnings.
Trump also has kept up the threats against Iran even as he spotlighted diplomacy. Asked about his exit strategy Friday, Trump said there are two ways.
鈥淵ou can just keep doing exactly what we鈥檙e doing and take them apart piece by piece. We could do it in a more rapid fashion, which we might do,鈥� he told reporters in the Oval Office. 鈥淥r we can negotiate with them, which we鈥檙e also doing right now.鈥�
While Trump said he doesn鈥檛 think Iran is 鈥渞eady yet鈥� to make a deal, he also asserted that 鈥淚 think they鈥檙e getting more and more serious as the days go by, for maybe the obvious reason.鈥�
Trump met Friday with top national security aides to discuss the situation with Iran and whether the administration should maintain the current course or escalate military attacks, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. No U.S. strikes occurred overnight in Iran after .
Trump insisted Friday that he was 鈥渘ot in a hurry鈥� to wrap things up because of the approaching elections, in which voters, angry about high food and gasoline prices, could vote his Republican Party out of control of Congress.
鈥淒espite what everyone says about the election, I鈥檓 not in a hurry,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e have to do it right. Elections take care of themselves.鈥�
____
Magdy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writer Matthew Lee contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, written or redistributed.
