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Virginians are preparing to head to the polls next week for the Commonwealth鈥檚 primary election, and some of the outcomes in Northern Virginia districts could ultimately impact the balance of power in the U.S. House.
The primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, later in the summer than usual because the possibility of redistricting prompted the election to be delayed. But Virginia鈥檚 Supreme Court struck down the proposed redistricting plan that passed a referendum this spring, meaning the state鈥檚 congressional districts remain unchanged.
One of the most competitive races, experts said, is expected in Virginia鈥檚 7th Congressional District. It includes parts of Prince William, Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, among others.
Three Republicans, Philip Harding, Douglas Ollivant and Rick Smithers, are competing for the chance to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Eugene Vindman.
鈥淰indman has been a longtime target of both Republicans generally and the current president in particular,鈥� Virginia Tech political science professor Karen Hult said.
鈥淏ut more than that, this has always been a competitive seat, and so that means it鈥檚 going to be one that many people are going to be looking at and paying a lot of attention to.鈥�
Bob Holsworth, a Richmond-based political analyst, said in addition to the 7th District, a competitive primary may emerge in the 10th District.
There, Rep. Suhas Subramanyam is finishing his first term and running for reelection. Three Republicans, Dave Beckwith, Julie Perry and Anthony Suttles, will face off for the chance to face Subramanyam in November.
鈥淔irst-term incumbents are always at somewhat of a risk for being challenged,鈥� Hult said.
鈥淓specially in an area where there鈥檚 a lot of uncertainty, a lot of demographic movement and concerns about the economy, cost of living, things like that. Any of those things can come into play as well.鈥�
Virginia鈥檚 10th District covers parts of Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax counties and Manassas City and Manassas Park City, among others.
In the nearby 8th District, which includes Fairfax and Arlington counties and Alexandria and Falls Church, several Democrats are running against longtime Rep. Don Beyer. Beyer is currently in his sixth term representing the area in Congress.
Lorena Bruner, Michael Duffin, Adam Dunigan and Mustafa “Mo” Seifeldein will all be on the Democratic primary ballot with Beyer.
Challengers to Democratic incumbents in heavily Democrat areas typically fare better if 鈥渢hey can kind of consolidate behind one person,鈥� said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
鈥淭he field right now against Don Beyer seems fairly split. He鈥檚 raised something like five times the amount of all his opponents combined.鈥�
Coleman said it may be interesting to monitor the protest vote against Beyer, but 鈥淚鈥檇 still be shocked if he actually lost.鈥�
Meanwhile, Hult said some Democrats seem to think 鈥減erhaps Mr. Beyer has been in office for a little bit too long, and it鈥檚 time for a change in generation. That would be somewhat of a surprise in the broader D.C. area, because that is clearly a Democratic district.鈥�
Analysts are expecting Virginia鈥檚 first and second districts to be the most competitive races this fall.
Seven Democrats are competing for the chance to unseat Republican incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st District. Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County Commonwealth鈥檚 Attorney, has emerged as the front-runner in the Democratic primary.
In the 2nd District, meanwhile, former Rep. Elaine Luria and several other Democrats are competing for the chance to square off against Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans.
Because this year鈥檚 primary is later in the summer than usual, experts are expecting lower turnout.
Broadly, Holsworth said Republicans will either be supporting candidates who are fully aligned with President Donald Trump 鈥渙r do they think the party needs to take another direction? On the Democratic side, the basic arguments tend to be between what I would call the center-left Democrats and the more progressive Democrats, who want to see the establishment be greater fighters than they are right now.鈥�
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