Homicide rates in major U.S. cities have likely fallen to lows last seen at the turn of the last century, with a D.C. decline said to be “steeper” than in other parts of the U.S., according to new research.
“There is no single or easy explanation for these historic lows,” the Council on Criminal Justice said in its .
The nonpartisan council first estimated in January that the 2025 homicide rate in 30 U.S. cities would reach its lowest level since 1900, once the FBI official data are released.
So far in 2026, it said, the murder rate in those cities is down 18% compared with the first half 2025.
The year-to-date robbery drop in the District, at 41%, is “larger than what we’re seeing for these other large cities,” Ernesto Lopez, the council’s senior research specialist, told 杏吧原创.
The Council on Criminal Justice started producing crime trend reports in July 2020. The current decline began in the second half 2022, it said.
“It is a combination of different factors, from large demographic social shifts, such as the aging population, to perhaps even police technology, being able to respond quicker, identify people a little bit better,” Lopez said.
What existing research has not found is a link between the reduction in violent crime in D.C. to the deployment of the National Guard, he said.
“Cities that didn’t see National Guard deployments saw large declines in homicide as well,” Lopez said, citing other research.
“There’s some evidence base suggesting that the guard did not have a significant impact on homicide, it’s time to take a longer look, and so that’s something that I think would be the next step,” he said.
“I don’t want to suggest that the Guard can never be effective,” Lopez said, noting that the Guard is typically called in for situations local police can’t handle alone, such as natural disasters and massive protests. “I think this use of it is relatively novel.”
“While numbers are going down in many cities, homicide still is too high. You have many jurisdictions that are well above the national average, and … there are plenty of homicide victims,” Lopez said.
He said more research is needed to determine what leads to violence in communities.
“That way if we do have another increase, we can you turn back to strategies that have proven to be effective,” Lopez said.
“Aggravated assault is high, has gone up recently in D.C., and so those are people who you know generally suffered serious injuries, and so there’s still a lot of you know work to be done when it comes to overall violence in the U.S.”
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